Opinion – If you have not already recognized it, I hope you do so soon enough. The APRC/NPP government is operating according to what military strategists call the “death-ground” concept. Death ground is a position in which a force believes it is fighting for its very survival. No retreat, no surrender, and no backup plan.
That is how the APRC/NPP government seems to view its political struggle. Ebrima Ceesay once warned its members that if they lost power to the UDP, they would all go to prison. Demba Sabally went further, declaring that they would be willing to shed blood to remain in power. This is death-ground politics in its starkest form: win and survive, or lose and perish.
When Hamat Bah warns communities against the UDP and UNITE by casting UDP as a tribal party while exposing his ignorance and tribal bigotry by casting Mr. Bensouda as a Lebanese, he is mobilizing a defensive constituency and preparing the political terrain for conflict. Hamat’s bigotry may be presented as a defense of Fulas and Wolofs, but such framing should not be accepted uncritically.
Hamat is only defending his own interests. He wouldn’t want to answer questions about his mansion in Senegal. He wouldn’t want to face questions about his corruption at the Tourism Ministry. From Adama Barrow downward, the system’s beneficiaries have powerful incentives to preserve an order from which they continue to profit. To Hamat and his ilk, winning is survival, and defeat means they perish. This is a political fight they must fight with everything they have, and they will not fight fair!
For UNITE and the UDP, you may continue to preach civility and cordiality in dealing with the APRC/NPP, but such virtues, when not paired with strategic awareness, cannot make you winners. Political competition, like military conflict, rewards those who accurately assess the intentions, capabilities, incentives, and methods of their opponents. Civility and cordiality must never lull you into complacency. You have to know that you are contesting against a group of desperate individuals, and they will do or say anything to remain at the buffet table. Know them well. This is the enduring lesson captured by the celebrated military thinker Sun Tzu:
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained, you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Hamat Bah may be corrupt, avaricious, and willing to exploit ethnic divisions, but don’t underestimate his political wiliness. I first encountered him in his office in 2018, where he ordered me to leave after I confronted him about his duplicity. Years later, after learning that I was in The Gambia, he invited me to attend a cultural event in Janjanbureh as a guest of honor. I declined.
Someone should have told him that not everyone in The Gambia is available for purchase, patronage, or political co-option. I seek neither relevance, fame, nor wealth. I share this personal anecdote to illustrate a broader strategic pattern: these actors are calculating, adaptive, and deliberate in their use of pressure, inducement, identity, and access. More so when they notice spinelessness in anyone. Recent political transfers bear me witness. The decisive question is whether the opposition understands the contest with equal clarity.
If I know anything about this colonial space, it is the extent to which those who benefit from it will go to defend the buffet table. Underestimate them at your own peril. Play nice, and they will dance on your grave. And they have the SIS spying on all of you and reporting directly to Adama Barrow. UNITE and UDP must understand that limiting your campaign to programs and policies with an entrenched APRC/NPP fighting for its survival by hook or crook is not a winning strategy.
Playing by the rules when you know the moribund IEC will never call a foul is not a winning strategy. Don’t ask me what you have to do. By now, if you don’t know how to confront the tribal bigotry and xenophobia of the APRC/NPP, you have already lost the battle. Know yourselves, and know the APRC/NPP government. Those defending the buffet table are fighting for their survival. They will say and do anything to win. Again, the question is: Do you know this? Well, our elders said that “If a snake does not show its venom, little children will use it to tie firewood.”
